Excerptcize

Archive for March, 2010

Last week I noted some ways that healthcare reform in the States could adversely effect Canada. While that possibility is there, the potential to benefit Canada, indirectly, is there as well. Reform in the US takes a two-pronged approach; extending coverage, which has received the bulk of attention abroad for it’s moral implications, and controlling costs, which, while not being ‘sexy’, is a measure that does have some potential relevance for Canada and other countries.

Medical advancements, like other technological innovations, are not zero-sum propositions; pharmaceuticals that were first researched and developed in the States now benefit people around the world. When it is shown that a 50% reduction in surgical mortality rates and a 36% decline in complications can be attained by following a basic checklist, those checklists can be implemented at a larger scale. The same goes for improvements in cost effectiveness.

Just as I imagine that in the long run cost effectiveness measures developed in the US will be a boon to other countries, the US will also hope to be the benefactor of efficiencies gained elsewhere. As Ezra Klein noted:

Even if the bill does a better job than CBO projects, health-care costs will still bankrupt us. This is one small step for cost, one giant leap for coverage. My great hope is that the bill makes thenext steps easier. But there’s still no guarantee we’ll take them.

The same can be said about Canada, and really any industrial country. This graph from the Parliamentary Budget Officers recent Fiscal Sustainability Report features a pretty scary forecast for our future federal debt:

Not all of that sharp upwards climb will be due to increases  in healthcare expenditures, but a lot of it is. The first members of the baby boomer generation are turning 65 this year; couple that with an ever rising life expectancy and you have a perfect formula for endlessly escalating healthcare outlays. For my part, I am an optimist that these are problems that can be solved, and having the US as part of “the club of states who don’t turn their back on the sick and the poor” is a necessary part of the puzzle.

• A Question For The Thin Blue Line (Updated) I've never been a fan of tasers. Way too many people have already died directly from these devices or were killed in an event that involved their use. They have been adopted very quickly by...
• The Post In Which I Hedge Against My Previous One [/caption] On Friday I wrote the following: [...] socially conservative, right wing political factions in the US have truly earned the label 'noise-machine'. Social conservatives in the States are vocal, well organized, well funded and...

• Trading For The Sake Of Money And More About Stereotypes. Many people start career of the trader with hopes to become millionaires after one year. Then they start to trade... And lose. Versions of thoughts...
• Health Care Costs in Retirement A difficult task in retirement planning and budgeting is estimating health care costs. We know those costs will be significant compared to our earlier years....

Amidst my general happiness for our American friends in joining the rest of the western world in providing access to health insurance for all of it’s citizens, there are a few aspects of this story concerning Canada that I want to take a look at. Yesterday I heard from a few people that while they too were happy for the American people, they didn’t really care as it would have no effect on them. There’s a few reasons why this is not true, but what immediately jumps out to my mind is the twofold effects of ‘brain drain’.

First, new provisions in the law will allow over 30 million people to gain access to health insurance/care for the first time. Hospitals are going to be adding doctors and nurses to their staffs, and Canada is, and will continue to be a fertile recruiting ground to fill those spots.

Compounding this is the new ability for those who are self-employed to purchase insurance on ‘exchanges’, which will effectively give individuals the same purchasing power as large groups. This will finally make purchasing health insurance for oneself a tenable position. There are many folks who in the past have been turned off from emigrating to the States based solely on the fact that buying healthcare insurance on the individual market was next to impossible. That is no longer the case, meaning that there is that much more intellectual/entrepreneurial talent flowing south.

This country already has a doctor shortage as it is and we should be aware that they will be sought out even more so now by US hospitals. This fact highlights that we need to continue in our efforts to train more physicians as well as increase our acceptance of foreign trained care providers. US health care reform also holds the possibility to have some positive effects on Canada, and I will look at those in post to follow shortly.

• Prostitution and Pragmatics On Monday, November 23rd the Vancouver Public Library played host to a public forum held by FIRST, a coalition of feminists whose purpose is to 'support the rights of sex industry workers advocate for the...
• Oh Yeah, That Whole Senate Thing [/caption] In my haste to post on the prorogation of parliament, I completely forgot to mention one of the more tangible reasons for Mr. Harper to do so; Senate appointments. As I understand it, (mostly...

• It costs if you're fat. Now it might cost even if you're thin? I tell you:  It just doesn't pay to be human anymore.  Big or small. I'm well aware of how being fat costs money.  But there...
• Tax the Unhealthy - Lazy Man's Thoughts [This is my response to a two-part guest post by Adfecto of Aspire 2 Wealth. You might want to read both part 1 and part...

Going on right now (it’s 8:09pm PST) is the Paralympic Torch Relay. In fact, it’s passing right beneath my window! And it will be back in about half an hour! This torch run is somewhat different than the Olympic relay, but it is just as moving and heartwarming, if not more so. This flame was not kindled by rays of sunshine from far away Greece; this flame has been brought forth anew every morning of the relay. This morning it was re-lit by members of the Musquem First Nation for the last time. Overnight the flame will move throughout the heart of downtown Vancouver on a community relay that circuits Robson St, Granville St, Smithe/Haro St and Bute St. The relay will continue until 2pm tomorrow, at which time it will move to BC Place Stadium for the opening ceremonies. If you are able to, do yourself a favour and stop and see (and even follow for a bit) the torch run.

• Olympics and all that Thursday evening saw a divided panel come together for a public forum on security and civil liberties during the 2010 Olympics at the SFU Harbour Centre.  The forum was organized by the Impact on Communities...
• Anti-Olympic Voice Turned Away At Vancouver Airport [/caption] On Saturday, after undergoing several hours of questioning from Canadian customs officials, Martin Macias Jr., an activist with ties to the Olympic Resistance Network attempting to travel to Vancouver to cover and participate in...

• Learn to Run the Safe Way There are more people running than ever before. This is because they want to stay in shape and running seems to be a great way...
• Who Pays For The Olympics? Vancouver Edition A year and a half ago I wrote about the who pays for the Olympics in Beijing. Weakonomics was in its infancy but it remains...

It has been a big week from a political standpoint; Parliament reconvened with a Speech from the Throne on Wednesday and Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty tabled his governments latest federal budget on Thursday. Before taking a look through the federal budget, I would like to take some time to examine the BC Provincial Budget that was unveiled by Provincial Finance Minister Colin Hansen on Tuesday.

The first thing to always remind oneself of when paying any heed to a budget, whether it is a provincial or federal one, is that it is a hybrid of a policy document and a political one. A good example of this fact can be found by reading through the 2010 Budget Highlights. Only once in that document does the word ‘deficit’ appear, and that is as an axis label in this graphic:

BC Provincial Budget: 2001-2009, with 2010-2014 forecasts

Well, at least they used the word once! This graphic does get to the crux of any budget; is there a surplus or a deficit and how big is it? For the fiscal year of 2010/11 a deficit of $1.715 billion dollars is projected.  This is a figure that is 38% lower than last years deficit of $2.775 billion and represents about 1% of provincial GDP*. The budget forecast sees that deficit dropping to $945 million the next year (45% less than the projection for this year) $145 million in 2012 and turning to a surplus of $410 million by 2013. Considering the depth and breadth of the just now turning around recession, especially in the US housing market (the primary destination of much of BC’s forestry products) I’d say these numbers look rather good on balance. My very limited economics sense tells me that with interest rates as low as they are now and no strong signs pointing towards a spike in inflation an even higher short term deficit could be in order. All and all though, these forecasts seem reasonable to me.

Next, let’s take a look over the goodies contained within the budget. ‘Goodies’ are new spending announcements or reallocations for very specific programs. These specific allocations will serve as the basis for a whole years worth of generic talking points: “Our Government believes in X, that’s why we created the Y program in this years budget, funding it with Z dollars over the next year(s).” Every single one of these expenditures may be warranted, and perhaps many deserve more funding,  and none of this suggests that these programs should be cut. I just feel it is important to remember the political aspect to them. So what are the goodies? By far the largest share of funding increases comes in the form of a $2 billion dollar increase from the 2009/10 budget levels for healthcare over the next three years, with over half of that number going directly to health authorities for front line expenditures. Pivoting off of the just finished Olympic Games, $30 million in new funding was announced for youth participation in sports, and another $30 million for provincial art investments. The LiveSmartBC program, designed to assist homeowners in improving energy efficiency, returns with $35 million in funding. A big item in the budget, for homeowners with kids at least, is the new ability to defer payment on property taxes until one sells their home. It’s hard to put a price tag on this item, but I imagine it will prove to be extremely popular. The last ‘goody’ I can pick out easily is a grant of up to $200 for homeowners outside of the Lower Mainland and the Victoria area.

• The Post In Which I Hedge Against My Previous One [/caption] On Friday I wrote the following: [...] socially conservative, right wing political factions in the US have truly earned the label 'noise-machine'. Social conservatives in the States are vocal, well organized, well funded and...
• US Affordable Care Act: What's In It For Me? (Canadian Edition) Last week I noted some ways that healthcare reform in the States could adversely effect Canada. While that possibility is there, the potential to benefit Canada, indirectly, is there as well. Reform in the US...

• When Economists Agree, Part 1 Recently, I've been doing a bit of spring cleaning, and I came across my old microeconomics book.  (In case you are curious, it's Principles of...
• Top 10 Ways the Government Can Help Our Economy The Weakonomist tends to trust the free market's ability to set prices over time. However some do not share this sentiment and prefer to let...

The Canada Line - A beautiful jewel in Vancouver's transportation network

The cauldron in Coal Harbour has been extinguished, the Olympic flag has been lowered and the Vancouver 2010 Olympic Games have ended. That means  two things; it’s time for me to start doing some blogging again, and some of those posts will be in reference or reaction to all the articles and editorials now asking the question ‘What will the legacy of these Games be?’ It’s Tuesday already, so I am behind already. As a lowly, pajama clad blogger though I feel that I was more than entitled to some rest; I figure the pros out there will have the necessary bases covered. Derek Moscato is assuredly a pro. He has a regular column in Metro Vancouver that focuses on urban issues, transportation, architecture and economics. I always enjoy his work and generally find myself in agreement with most of his assessments.  His column from Monday is no different, as he gets directly to the point and says that the legacy of these games should be transit.

The points that he makes are clear and concise, but the most important one is the first one he lists:

Rapid transit — in the form of light metro — is pivotal to the growth of this region. Let’s stop arguing about the merits of rapid transit technologies in the Tri-Cities, or out to UBC, and get on with expanding our already successful SkyTrain network. In the end, it was the Canada and SkyTrain lines that did the heavy lifting for the Olympics, with the Canada Line moving millions between competition sites and downtown destinations. Ditto for SkyTrain, especially close to the stadiums

I couldn’t agree more. The Canada Line was a shining workhorse throughout the games and everyone in Vancouver should be extremely proud of this piece of backbone infrastructure. It seems that the Vancouver Games won’t be able to shake the ‘$6 billion’ price tag that the media has afixed to it. If people realize and appreciate that a third of that cost is associated with the Canada Line I won’t be so perturbed by the fuzzy math that generates that $6 billion figure.

What I am really looking forward to is seeing some transit numbers post games. Typically TransLink moves some 750,000 people around on any given day. During the Olympics that number more than doubled to 1.6 million. Myself, Derek and anyone else concerned with transportation policy in the GVRD eagerly hope to see some numbers showing that people who switched to transit during the games are sticking with it afterward. Hopefully TransLink will have some of those numbers for us by the end of the week.

• And The Proof Shall Be In The Olympic Pudding This Monday's Metro Vancouver featured a report on an anti-Olympic mural that has been repainted outside a Downtown Eastside art gallery. [/caption] The original removal of this mural in November has been cited by civil...
• Undue Canada Bashing From Colbert Continues Stephen Colbert's assault on the Canadian speed skating team and Canada in general continued this Thursday on 'The Sport Report' (pronounced The Spore Rapport) when Stephen once again attacked Canada in regards to his beef...

• MonaVie and J.D. Drew's Health I grew up 8 miles from Boston, I've always been Red Sox fan. My new dog is named after Jacoby Ellsbury. I'm part of a...
• Will the Winter Olympics 2010 Be Good for the Canadian Dollar and Canadian Economy? Between February 12 and 28, 2010, all eyes around the world will be on Vancouver, BC, Canada for the 2010 XXI Winter Olympic Games.  More...